As in the 1880s, we live in an era of polarized partisan parity, in which changes of opinion among independent voters can sweep election results. One year ago, Joe Biden was elected president with 51% of the popular vote. Now, with his job approval down to 42%, his party is in trouble.

That’s obvious from Republican Glenn Youngkin’s 51-49 victory for governor in Virginia, which Biden won by 10% in 2020, and Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy’s reelection by only 51-49 in New Jersey, which had been +16% for Biden. It’s obvious also that, barring an upward shift in public opinion, Democrats will surely lose their narrow House majority in the House and likely lose their current 50-50 parity in the Senate.

Michael Barone is a senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner.

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